* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092010 09/01/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 44 49 53 59 65 71 78 83 85 86 91 V (KT) LAND 35 40 44 49 53 59 65 71 78 83 85 86 91 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 44 48 52 57 62 67 76 87 98 104 109 SHEAR (KT) 7 4 2 4 9 11 12 9 10 6 6 3 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 10 9 5 3 0 -4 -3 -1 1 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 116 190 251 168 187 186 160 124 123 123 136 86 30 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 135 136 137 140 142 142 143 144 148 149 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 132 131 132 133 134 134 136 140 143 141 142 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 51 49 48 47 48 46 49 49 45 46 44 44 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 16 15 16 20 850 MB ENV VOR 55 45 41 49 49 55 53 56 53 54 44 38 33 200 MB DIV 17 14 23 41 56 29 36 48 76 47 33 46 38 LAND (KM) 1787 1780 1692 1637 1586 1504 1457 1433 1401 1347 1266 1172 1098 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 36.5 37.7 38.8 39.7 40.5 42.1 43.3 44.3 45.6 47.5 50.3 52.2 53.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 8 11 12 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 17 20 21 25 37 42 43 41 49 73 85 83 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 403 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 18. 24. 30. 36. 43. 48. 50. 51. 56. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 NINE 09/01/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 NINE 09/01/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 NINE 09/01/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)