* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942010 09/01/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 35 32 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 35 32 27 21 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 32 31 29 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 23 21 19 17 15 13 16 14 8 6 14 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 0 -4 2 3 1 4 3 6 2 5 SHEAR DIR 60 75 82 89 86 94 83 85 98 167 208 220 225 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.5 25.2 23.9 23.8 23.8 23.4 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 141 138 135 134 129 116 103 101 101 97 93 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 82 82 81 80 73 71 68 62 61 58 56 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 10 8 7 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 60 79 96 94 94 99 88 80 80 50 38 18 6 200 MB DIV 23 36 61 76 58 46 0 0 -16 -25 -11 -18 -22 LAND (KM) 428 437 450 482 500 499 614 768 958 1137 1291 1449 1636 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.3 108.8 109.5 110.2 112.2 114.5 117.1 119.9 122.5 125.0 127.3 129.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 8 9 11 11 13 13 12 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 5 5 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 2. -3. -9. -13. -18. -25. -30. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942010 INVEST 09/01/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942010 INVEST 09/01/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY