* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/02/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 120 119 117 114 102 88 73 58 40 31 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 120 120 119 117 114 102 88 64 45 33 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 120 122 120 117 112 98 81 55 46 36 37 39 41 SHEAR (KT) 19 17 13 13 14 23 20 25 36 45 44 43 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 5 5 5 2 0 7 -3 -1 4 1 SHEAR DIR 192 194 196 197 181 190 207 224 239 218 228 232 237 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.3 28.8 27.2 22.8 16.2 17.1 9.9 9.9 7.4 8.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 164 159 151 130 95 76 78 71 69 62 62 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 155 149 143 134 115 87 72 73 69 67 61 61 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -49.6 -49.0 -48.6 -47.8 -47.6 -47.3 -47.7 -47.3 -47.3 -48.3 -46.4 -45.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 9 8 4 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 47 50 48 45 45 51 56 57 43 37 55 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 33 36 38 38 37 34 32 32 24 24 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 57 32 35 23 0 -7 14 68 127 154 93 124 157 200 MB DIV 65 47 27 24 18 59 94 91 82 93 61 6 -18 LAND (KM) 663 615 527 370 219 223 152 -45 65 59 487 461 629 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 28.6 30.1 31.8 33.5 36.8 40.4 44.3 49.1 54.7 61.2 64.6 63.5 LONG(DEG W) 73.4 74.1 74.8 74.8 74.7 73.3 69.8 65.4 60.8 57.5 55.6 52.9 50.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 20 24 27 29 31 25 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 54 46 41 45 48 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 16 CX,CY: -7/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 1. -7. -21. -39. -54. -67. -74. -78. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -10. -13. -12. -8. -6. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -13. -16. -18. -21. -25. -29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -15. -19. -23. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -4. -10. -10. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -18. -32. -47. -62. -80. -89.-100.-110. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/02/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 46.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/02/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/02/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 33( 55) 30( 69) 24( 76) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 36 14( 45) 0( 45) 0( 45) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)