* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 09/02/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 50 49 47 44 42 42 43 45 44 40 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 50 49 47 44 42 42 43 45 44 40 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 51 52 52 52 49 45 43 43 44 48 51 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 20 23 27 30 22 18 15 6 9 27 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 4 6 5 7 6 3 0 1 -2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 37 16 9 11 26 39 56 76 86 102 232 237 237 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.3 27.7 27.4 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 160 160 159 159 157 154 148 141 133 129 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 151 149 148 144 138 134 131 126 120 112 108 101 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.0 -50.1 -50.8 -50.8 -51.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 12 14 14 12 13 12 11 7 6 4 4 700-500 MB RH 47 46 48 46 43 42 39 35 40 37 34 41 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -78 -96 -105 -112 -128 -99 -109 -109 -83 -71 -77 -62 -43 200 MB DIV 1 -3 2 -4 -5 -2 1 7 15 31 26 34 17 LAND (KM) 380 432 524 633 699 873 1010 1048 1021 1029 935 786 701 LAT (DEG N) 21.1 22.2 23.2 24.3 25.4 27.3 28.5 29.8 31.3 33.1 35.0 36.8 38.5 LONG(DEG W) 63.6 64.6 65.5 66.3 67.0 67.7 67.4 66.9 66.1 65.1 63.9 62.5 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 13 13 12 8 7 8 9 11 10 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 80 72 58 70 57 42 36 28 13 14 29 0 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 21 CX,CY: -12/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -6. -10. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 09/02/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 09/02/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 09/02/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)