* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/02/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 50 57 64 73 79 84 86 92 93 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 47 50 57 64 73 79 84 86 92 93 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 45 48 54 60 68 79 91 101 109 117 SHEAR (KT) 5 2 2 6 8 7 8 8 12 8 5 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 8 8 7 4 -1 0 -3 0 1 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 117 102 150 159 198 157 128 81 90 85 126 29 185 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 133 134 135 139 143 145 144 146 151 155 160 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 127 127 129 132 136 138 138 143 147 150 154 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 47 49 47 48 48 47 47 45 44 42 40 43 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 12 12 13 12 12 11 15 15 850 MB ENV VOR 45 38 46 45 47 50 47 49 41 35 32 32 24 200 MB DIV 5 30 56 75 54 24 35 18 51 20 19 17 10 LAND (KM) 1833 1767 1701 1657 1616 1534 1479 1421 1354 1277 1171 1021 949 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.5 13.6 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.6 15.9 15.9 16.4 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 37.4 38.3 39.1 39.8 40.5 41.8 43.1 44.6 46.4 48.6 51.3 53.5 55.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 6 7 8 10 12 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 14 17 19 22 27 36 43 42 39 58 88 86 86 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 22. 29. 38. 44. 49. 51. 57. 58. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/02/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/02/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/02/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)