* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942010 09/02/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 34 33 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 34 33 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 33 31 29 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 22 19 13 13 17 13 14 12 9 4 15 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 -2 -2 1 5 6 2 6 2 4 2 SHEAR DIR 74 82 82 79 77 81 83 71 95 172 220 237 233 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.7 25.9 24.2 23.4 23.1 23.1 23.1 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 143 140 137 132 124 106 98 94 94 94 90 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -51.8 -51.0 -51.6 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 7 7 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 81 82 79 74 73 72 65 63 60 62 55 54 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 11 9 8 8 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 91 89 87 100 85 76 76 59 30 14 -3 -11 200 MB DIV 23 51 62 46 41 16 4 -10 -8 -19 -25 -20 -17 LAND (KM) 338 328 330 370 402 396 557 723 948 1129 1319 1532 1732 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.3 20.5 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.5 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 107.0 107.5 108.0 108.8 109.6 111.9 114.7 117.6 120.6 123.4 126.0 128.5 130.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 8 9 10 12 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 22 7 6 11 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 14. 14. 13. 12. 10. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -8. -10. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. -3. -9. -14. -20. -27. -32. -36. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942010 INVEST 09/02/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942010 INVEST 09/02/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY