* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/02/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 121 121 119 115 104 88 73 57 43 28 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 121 121 119 115 104 88 64 43 34 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 120 121 120 115 109 93 73 47 49 36 36 37 40 SHEAR (KT) 12 8 9 7 17 21 21 26 42 39 28 25 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 8 11 2 0 0 12 -2 8 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 174 164 140 160 187 198 204 232 208 204 212 226 248 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.2 26.2 18.4 18.3 15.9 10.1 10.6 9.5 8.9 POT. INT. (KT) 168 164 161 154 142 120 80 80 75 68 67 64 63 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 148 144 137 125 106 75 75 71 66 65 62 61 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.2 -48.3 -48.0 -47.7 -47.1 -47.6 -46.7 -46.1 -45.1 -45.0 -46.5 -47.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 6 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 49 45 42 44 50 59 58 43 37 54 57 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 34 36 36 37 36 38 36 35 34 33 26 18 12 850 MB ENV VOR 33 41 25 0 -27 21 56 93 133 149 140 116 97 200 MB DIV 43 46 27 23 38 61 58 103 112 101 72 33 15 LAND (KM) 587 522 360 220 134 219 152 12 -5 114 327 516 684 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 30.1 31.6 33.3 34.9 38.2 42.0 46.2 50.8 55.1 58.8 61.5 61.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.4 74.9 75.4 75.0 74.6 72.4 68.6 63.9 59.3 57.0 57.0 55.0 51.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 18 21 25 27 25 20 16 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 48 41 44 40 19 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 16 CX,CY: -7/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -1. -10. -27. -45. -60. -72. -79. -82. -85. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -6. -3. -3. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -21. -26. -29. -32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -7. -13. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -5. -16. -32. -47. -63. -77. -92.-106.-116. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/02/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.5 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/02/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/02/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 34( 56) 31( 69) 26( 77) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 22 7( 27) 0( 27) 0( 27) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)