* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 09/02/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 48 46 46 43 40 39 38 38 36 33 29 V (KT) LAND 50 49 48 46 46 43 40 39 38 38 36 33 29 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 50 50 49 45 42 40 40 41 42 42 SHEAR (KT) 17 18 22 24 26 27 16 12 8 13 18 29 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 6 6 5 6 7 2 3 1 -1 5 8 SHEAR DIR 22 9 6 22 27 48 73 80 120 181 193 213 233 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.2 24.7 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 163 160 160 160 160 156 146 137 131 127 116 104 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 151 149 147 145 139 127 116 109 106 97 88 75 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.7 -51.0 -50.1 -49.6 -49.2 -49.6 -50.3 -50.8 -51.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 14 14 14 13 12 11 8 5 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 46 47 45 42 39 39 39 40 32 29 31 35 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -101 -112 -117 -135 -112 -60 -86 -109 -81 -87 -87 -95 -55 200 MB DIV 0 4 7 4 4 -4 4 27 21 36 25 21 18 LAND (KM) 405 522 623 720 833 1047 1025 1004 892 767 699 619 512 LAT (DEG N) 22.0 23.2 24.4 25.7 26.9 29.6 32.1 34.1 35.7 37.3 39.0 40.5 42.1 LONG(DEG W) 64.9 65.8 66.6 67.1 67.6 67.1 65.6 64.2 63.0 61.5 59.4 57.1 54.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 13 13 14 13 10 10 11 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 66 58 69 53 42 29 12 30 12 0 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 12. 11. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. 0. 1. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -14. -17. -21. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 09/02/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 14.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 57.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 09/02/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 09/02/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)