* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/02/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 44 52 59 67 74 80 84 88 90 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 44 52 59 67 74 80 84 88 90 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 37 39 41 46 53 62 73 84 93 101 110 SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 7 5 9 12 12 13 10 10 9 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 9 8 7 1 0 2 0 4 2 3 2 SHEAR DIR 129 139 164 135 138 96 77 74 62 65 45 66 142 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 133 135 138 143 146 147 147 151 156 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 125 125 125 126 131 137 141 142 143 148 155 161 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 49 47 47 48 49 51 51 48 47 45 42 45 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 12 11 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 43 46 41 41 42 40 40 35 38 38 37 28 29 200 MB DIV 14 32 48 42 46 20 39 28 34 45 29 23 0 LAND (KM) 1795 1750 1706 1665 1624 1547 1466 1370 1264 1191 1126 1010 839 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.5 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.8 16.5 LONG(DEG W) 38.0 38.6 39.2 39.8 40.3 41.4 42.9 44.6 46.5 48.5 50.7 53.2 55.9 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 5 5 6 8 9 9 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 19 22 25 35 40 39 43 48 83 92 96 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 444 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 9. 17. 24. 32. 39. 45. 49. 53. 55. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/02/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/02/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/02/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)