* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/02/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 118 115 110 105 94 75 59 43 31 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 118 115 110 105 94 75 52 33 29 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 120 118 113 107 100 85 65 49 34 34 35 37 41 SHEAR (KT) 17 10 11 15 17 20 19 39 39 30 26 29 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 6 7 5 1 1 4 9 -2 -6 -1 -4 5 SHEAR DIR 177 150 167 192 199 185 210 214 190 191 227 236 249 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.0 28.3 27.5 24.5 15.8 18.1 12.2 10.0 12.1 11.5 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 160 154 144 133 105 74 79 70 66 66 66 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 142 136 127 117 94 71 74 68 64 63 63 65 200 MB T (C) -48.9 -48.6 -48.2 -47.9 -47.8 -47.6 -47.8 -45.4 -44.8 -44.7 -46.4 -47.0 -48.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 7 5 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 48 44 48 50 56 56 54 42 48 51 59 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 37 39 38 35 35 38 33 33 30 27 23 17 14 850 MB ENV VOR 41 28 5 -27 -10 24 75 176 217 210 128 96 73 200 MB DIV 34 49 15 47 43 82 81 111 104 52 44 52 39 LAND (KM) 527 394 254 187 215 185 79 93 -229 178 458 629 754 LAT (DEG N) 30.1 31.6 33.0 34.7 36.3 39.6 43.4 47.7 52.8 56.0 57.4 57.6 55.8 LONG(DEG W) 74.8 74.8 74.8 74.1 73.4 70.8 66.9 63.6 60.7 57.3 53.4 49.6 45.1 STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 16 17 18 21 24 26 23 15 11 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 41 51 42 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 16 CX,CY: -3/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -4. -15. -33. -51. -65. -77. -83. -86. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -8. -6. -6. -2. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -27. -31. -34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -4. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -10. -15. -26. -45. -61. -77. -89.-101.-114.-124. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/02/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/02/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/02/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 31( 54) 27( 66) 16( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)