* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 09/02/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 37 35 32 31 30 29 28 24 20 V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 37 35 32 31 30 29 28 24 20 V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 42 40 39 37 34 32 31 31 32 32 33 SHEAR (KT) 21 27 28 31 30 18 10 4 10 13 19 30 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 7 6 5 7 5 5 -4 0 4 7 SHEAR DIR 1 4 14 17 26 42 60 87 139 172 196 236 240 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 28.8 28.0 27.5 26.9 25.8 23.8 19.5 17.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 158 158 158 150 138 131 124 113 98 79 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 146 144 142 141 132 119 111 104 95 84 72 69 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -49.4 -48.8 -49.1 -50.0 -50.7 -51.2 -52.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 14 14 14 12 12 11 10 6 5 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 45 44 43 42 42 40 37 33 29 30 35 37 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 5 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -134 -135 -130 -135 -92 -41 -73 -99 -96 -113 -127 -117 -81 200 MB DIV -17 9 2 -7 0 0 2 20 31 28 30 22 34 LAND (KM) 581 710 801 924 1051 1024 1004 871 784 703 655 480 438 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 25.0 26.2 27.5 28.7 31.4 34.0 36.0 37.6 39.3 40.9 42.4 44.0 LONG(DEG W) 65.4 66.0 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.0 64.4 62.5 60.4 58.1 55.4 52.5 49.0 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 12 13 13 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 65 65 38 28 29 13 29 0 7 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 16 CX,CY: -7/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 742 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -14. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -13. -14. -15. -16. -17. -21. -25. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 09/02/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 45.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 09/02/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 09/02/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)