* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/02/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 36 43 51 59 67 72 77 82 88 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 36 43 51 59 67 72 77 82 88 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 29 30 31 35 40 48 57 67 77 87 100 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 6 7 10 8 9 11 14 11 15 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 7 5 1 3 2 1 2 3 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 143 144 137 140 75 95 68 68 50 49 40 68 17 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 133 135 136 140 143 145 145 147 151 158 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 123 125 126 127 132 136 138 140 143 148 156 163 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 10 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 47 47 49 48 51 51 50 48 47 45 44 48 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 12 12 12 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 50 46 46 46 47 42 40 31 34 42 31 30 31 200 MB DIV 28 44 42 40 31 36 39 33 37 26 19 -1 12 LAND (KM) 1764 1725 1688 1655 1624 1544 1468 1370 1270 1188 1131 978 822 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.5 16.0 16.7 LONG(DEG W) 38.6 39.1 39.6 40.2 40.7 41.9 43.4 45.1 46.9 49.0 51.2 53.7 56.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 7 8 8 10 10 12 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 17 19 21 25 28 37 44 37 42 57 85 95 100 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 13. 21. 29. 37. 42. 47. 52. 58. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/02/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/02/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/02/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)