* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942010 09/02/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 28 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 29 27 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 16 19 18 17 16 13 11 11 16 17 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -2 0 0 2 2 1 7 5 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 82 79 81 87 93 90 79 107 188 209 239 226 230 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.3 24.9 23.2 22.9 22.6 22.8 22.8 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 144 142 141 136 132 128 114 96 92 88 90 89 90 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 8 6 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 80 77 71 69 68 62 60 57 56 53 53 45 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 11 11 10 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 87 96 99 79 86 69 55 37 18 7 -12 0 200 MB DIV 37 46 52 25 3 0 -20 -12 -25 -34 -29 -18 -9 LAND (KM) 302 322 350 377 359 477 650 843 1017 1184 1381 1547 1700 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.2 19.5 19.8 20.2 20.5 21.1 21.4 21.8 21.8 21.9 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.6 108.2 108.8 109.9 111.0 113.6 116.6 119.5 122.2 124.7 127.0 128.9 130.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 7 11 16 6 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -18. -23. -27. -33. -37. -41. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942010 INVEST 09/02/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942010 INVEST 09/02/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY