* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/02/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 97 94 92 79 64 50 35 27 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 105 101 97 94 92 79 53 39 31 26 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 99 94 90 85 71 49 45 31 33 36 41 45 SHEAR (KT) 16 16 18 18 19 20 24 40 29 11 15 24 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 5 1 1 1 14 3 1 0 -3 3 7 SHEAR DIR 198 192 192 183 179 188 210 213 207 232 247 263 258 SST (C) 29.4 29.0 28.4 27.6 26.7 19.8 17.0 15.2 7.2 8.9 11.0 11.3 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 160 153 145 135 124 83 77 74 67 64 64 67 70 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 134 127 119 110 77 72 70 66 63 62 64 67 200 MB T (C) -49.2 -48.7 -48.4 -48.2 -48.2 -48.2 -47.5 -46.5 -47.5 -48.5 -47.7 -45.9 -47.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 5 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 47 47 51 53 57 56 48 42 47 56 76 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 36 36 33 33 36 36 33 32 25 23 20 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 19 1 -32 -11 16 46 109 181 150 115 117 138 113 200 MB DIV 15 31 44 50 54 65 116 116 108 35 47 55 51 LAND (KM) 365 245 170 221 245 118 -27 -14 -18 221 442 596 622 LAT (DEG N) 31.7 33.1 34.5 36.2 37.9 41.5 45.9 50.4 55.7 58.8 59.6 58.8 55.6 LONG(DEG W) 75.2 74.8 74.4 73.4 72.3 69.0 65.1 62.6 61.4 59.0 55.5 52.0 47.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 17 19 20 24 25 25 22 12 9 15 21 HEAT CONTENT 48 39 27 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 16 CX,CY: -2/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -15. -29. -43. -55. -65. -70. -72. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -8. -7. -5. 0. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. PERSISTENCE -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -22. -26. -29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -26. -41. -55. -70. -78. -85. -95.-103. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/02/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/02/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/02/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 20( 42) 13( 49) 7( 53) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)