* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 09/02/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 42 40 38 38 36 33 28 22 15 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 42 40 38 38 36 33 28 22 15 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 44 43 43 41 39 38 37 38 37 35 33 SHEAR (KT) 23 26 28 30 29 13 7 9 24 29 41 54 53 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 7 3 2 5 1 3 1 0 4 3 10 SHEAR DIR 11 16 16 32 45 64 95 161 187 207 225 233 229 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.5 27.7 27.4 26.7 25.2 22.9 19.0 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 158 158 154 145 134 129 121 107 92 77 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 142 140 136 127 114 108 100 90 79 70 67 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -50.3 -49.9 -49.7 -50.1 -50.7 -51.1 -51.6 -52.6 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 7 5 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 43 42 42 44 44 42 39 32 33 36 39 49 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 5 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -130 -125 -110 -81 -47 -45 -96 -90 -93 -82 -84 -56 -6 200 MB DIV 11 17 5 -9 -10 9 10 17 35 26 33 19 33 LAND (KM) 695 805 926 1058 1058 1056 960 785 662 563 493 383 261 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 26.3 27.6 28.8 30.0 32.4 34.9 36.9 38.6 40.3 41.9 43.3 44.8 LONG(DEG W) 66.3 66.7 67.0 66.8 66.6 65.1 63.6 62.2 61.0 59.4 57.1 54.5 51.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 12 13 14 13 11 10 11 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 67 37 38 30 26 14 27 0 9 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 16 CX,CY: -7/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -9. -12. -17. -23. -30. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 09/02/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 09/02/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 09/02/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)