* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/02/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 27 34 41 51 59 66 72 79 86 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 27 34 41 51 59 66 72 79 86 V (KT) LGE mod 25 22 21 21 22 24 28 32 37 43 50 60 72 SHEAR (KT) 10 10 8 8 11 13 16 15 14 13 16 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 4 0 0 0 1 2 4 0 3 0 4 SHEAR DIR 119 117 121 72 89 69 68 67 53 59 44 2 22 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.6 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 134 136 138 142 146 146 147 149 154 163 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 124 126 129 131 135 139 141 143 147 153 162 167 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 12 700-500 MB RH 47 48 52 50 49 51 49 48 46 46 45 45 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 12 14 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR 42 45 46 51 45 42 32 38 35 39 31 32 31 200 MB DIV 39 34 48 27 32 44 44 43 38 21 9 5 11 LAND (KM) 1677 1647 1617 1577 1539 1462 1384 1293 1184 1110 1056 843 666 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.6 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.6 LONG(DEG W) 39.3 39.8 40.2 40.8 41.4 42.7 44.0 45.6 47.6 49.8 52.3 54.8 57.3 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 6 6 6 7 9 10 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 24 30 34 37 41 40 49 71 87 99 112 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 2. 9. 17. 26. 34. 41. 47. 54. 61. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/02/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/02/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/02/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)