* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942010 09/02/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 35 35 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 35 35 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 30 28 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 20 19 18 15 15 12 11 11 16 11 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -3 0 2 1 1 3 4 1 4 0 3 SHEAR DIR 72 80 88 93 78 83 97 137 174 216 225 214 226 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.7 25.9 24.1 23.5 23.2 23.3 23.5 23.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 136 133 132 131 123 105 98 95 95 97 99 101 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 5 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 69 67 65 63 58 62 56 52 44 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 11 12 12 12 9 7 6 5 5 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 91 91 84 92 83 82 62 49 30 24 23 35 200 MB DIV 43 40 33 14 4 -12 -25 -41 -42 -42 -28 -38 -14 LAND (KM) 383 411 381 397 443 610 769 964 1122 1280 1462 1620 1773 LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.7 20.9 21.1 20.9 20.6 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.8 110.5 111.6 112.7 115.2 118.0 120.6 123.1 125.3 127.3 128.9 130.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 10 11 12 13 12 11 10 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 12 7 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -8. -11. -11. -12. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 1. -5. -12. -19. -25. -31. -33. -35. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942010 INVEST 09/02/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 91.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942010 INVEST 09/02/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY