* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/03/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 86 84 80 68 52 34 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 95 89 86 84 80 68 44 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 95 87 81 77 73 60 46 36 36 34 33 33 DIS SHEAR (KT) 19 11 19 19 21 23 36 47 43 43 44 47 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 12 2 3 1 0 11 -3 -3 -4 1 3 N/A SHEAR DIR 198 192 195 184 176 215 224 217 233 251 258 255 N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.4 27.7 27.0 24.8 15.8 17.5 13.0 11.9 12.8 12.8 13.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 144 136 128 108 75 78 70 68 68 68 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 126 119 114 97 72 73 67 65 65 65 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -48.6 -49.0 -48.2 -48.1 -49.0 -47.9 -47.6 -46.5 -47.8 -47.9 -47.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 4 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 47 53 56 57 57 34 29 29 34 50 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 35 34 35 35 35 34 31 23 22 20 17 15 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -34 -21 9 -2 49 116 152 155 64 36 108 N/A 200 MB DIV 34 53 41 56 75 88 71 81 -4 -5 -3 7 N/A LAND (KM) 259 190 204 271 209 34 45 -47 287 623 928 1312 N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.0 34.5 36.0 37.8 39.5 43.6 48.7 52.1 54.1 55.3 55.1 55.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.7 74.2 73.6 72.1 70.5 66.4 61.6 56.8 51.8 47.0 42.0 36.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 19 21 24 28 26 20 16 14 16 17 N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 29 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 14 CX,CY: 4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -4. -15. -27. -39. -49. -57. -61. -63. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -7. -5. -2. -1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. -22. -25. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -10. -12. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -11. -15. -27. -43. -61. -72. -82. -94.-104.-110. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/03/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/03/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/03/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 10( 25) 7( 31) 3( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)