* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 09/03/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 42 41 41 39 37 36 35 30 23 15 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 42 41 41 39 37 36 35 30 23 15 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 41 38 37 36 36 36 34 31 28 SHEAR (KT) 31 33 29 28 19 9 3 6 21 39 51 60 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 0 4 4 7 0 SHEAR DIR 22 28 41 52 53 40 3 160 202 218 221 224 232 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.4 27.7 27.3 26.2 24.1 20.1 16.0 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 157 154 150 143 134 129 117 100 81 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 138 134 130 122 114 109 98 85 73 67 67 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -50.5 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -52.4 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 13 12 12 11 11 5 4 3 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 42 41 43 44 42 38 32 29 28 31 38 52 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 4 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -96 -106 -71 -55 -49 -81 -91 -100 -104 -93 -90 -48 11 200 MB DIV -5 -11 3 -6 10 0 16 31 13 29 12 22 42 LAND (KM) 809 927 1048 1090 1057 1061 980 794 650 506 422 241 366 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.6 28.7 29.8 30.8 32.7 34.8 36.9 39.2 41.2 43.0 44.6 46.1 LONG(DEG W) 66.8 66.8 66.8 66.4 66.0 64.9 63.4 61.9 60.2 58.2 55.4 52.3 48.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 38 34 30 26 18 16 25 0 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 15 CX,CY: -4/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 776 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -2. -7. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -15. -22. -30. -35. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 09/03/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 09/03/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 09/03/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)