* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/03/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 27 29 36 44 54 61 69 75 82 88 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 27 29 36 44 54 61 69 75 82 88 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 23 24 25 29 33 39 45 53 62 75 89 SHEAR (KT) 8 7 10 13 13 13 16 15 9 14 7 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 -1 1 0 3 4 1 3 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 124 121 63 87 76 72 68 60 45 29 61 6 61 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.5 29.8 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 139 141 142 146 146 147 149 152 161 167 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 132 134 135 139 140 142 145 150 160 166 167 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 8 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 50 50 49 52 49 48 46 46 44 44 42 44 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 13 13 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 49 49 49 44 43 36 30 33 36 32 33 31 26 200 MB DIV 39 52 38 36 33 35 19 8 18 12 9 9 24 LAND (KM) 1617 1570 1523 1487 1454 1393 1299 1209 1129 1066 898 714 592 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.4 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 40.2 40.8 41.4 42.1 42.7 44.0 45.5 47.3 49.4 51.6 54.1 56.6 59.1 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 10 10 12 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 24 29 32 36 37 41 39 47 64 83 94 108 113 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 18. 20. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 4. 11. 19. 29. 36. 44. 50. 57. 63. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/03/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 6.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 31.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/03/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/03/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)