* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942010 09/03/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 35 33 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 35 33 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 21 19 16 15 18 14 13 13 19 14 18 18 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 72 80 89 87 73 85 108 154 187 202 200 213 213 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 25.7 23.9 23.0 22.5 22.3 22.4 22.6 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 132 131 121 103 93 87 84 85 86 87 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 77 74 69 64 64 65 60 60 57 56 48 39 32 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 12 10 8 7 5 5 5 4 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 91 85 95 96 74 67 45 28 22 18 25 15 200 MB DIV 38 27 6 7 2 -28 -16 -30 -36 -21 -14 -16 -15 LAND (KM) 417 438 406 414 450 591 710 885 1016 1149 1297 1418 1518 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.2 20.9 21.4 21.9 22.2 22.2 22.1 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.0 110.7 111.8 112.8 115.2 117.8 120.3 122.7 124.6 126.3 127.6 128.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 12 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. -4. -5. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 3. 0. -5. -12. -20. -27. -33. -36. -41. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942010 INVEST 09/03/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942010 INVEST 09/03/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY