* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/03/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 84 81 75 63 51 33 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 86 84 81 75 48 41 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 86 82 78 72 45 44 39 35 32 30 30 DIS SHEAR (KT) 10 15 13 17 20 20 37 43 46 44 44 42 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 0 2 2 0 9 4 7 2 0 9 8 N/A SHEAR DIR 177 182 189 152 181 197 225 221 240 256 254 253 N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.8 27.3 25.1 20.1 18.2 16.1 11.5 12.7 12.6 12.8 13.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 136 131 111 85 80 75 68 68 67 68 69 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 124 118 116 100 79 75 71 66 65 64 65 66 N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -49.1 -48.6 -48.2 -48.6 -48.1 -47.6 -46.7 -46.1 -46.8 -46.4 -47.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 8 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 47 49 54 55 56 53 34 32 35 47 56 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 34 35 35 36 34 32 32 23 23 20 15 11 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -16 8 -3 16 56 89 139 128 33 68 110 N/A 200 MB DIV 43 40 47 80 63 112 118 46 12 -3 0 -3 N/A LAND (KM) 165 227 271 225 153 -30 70 162 541 853 1129 1466 N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.6 36.0 37.3 39.4 41.4 45.8 50.2 53.5 55.2 56.1 55.4 55.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.4 73.4 72.3 70.5 68.6 64.0 58.7 53.5 48.3 43.6 38.9 33.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 20 25 26 28 26 20 15 13 14 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 16 CX,CY: 4/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -7. -18. -29. -40. -48. -55. -58. -60. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -24. -28. -31. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -8. -9. -12. -15. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -15. -27. -39. -57. -69. -82. -96.-108.-115. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/03/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/03/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/03/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 9( 20) 5( 24) 0( 24) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)