* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 09/03/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 42 41 40 38 37 37 34 27 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 42 41 40 38 37 37 34 27 19 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 40 38 36 36 36 35 32 29 27 SHEAR (KT) 33 31 28 19 16 9 3 15 35 52 65 67 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 5 4 1 0 5 -1 0 3 0 0 8 SHEAR DIR 32 41 55 55 47 44 40 191 212 223 230 228 228 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.1 27.5 26.8 24.8 21.2 16.4 15.2 15.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 154 150 147 139 131 123 105 85 72 71 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 137 134 130 127 118 112 105 90 75 68 67 67 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -50.9 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 -50.7 -51.2 -51.3 -51.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 12 12 11 12 8 5 4 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 40 42 44 41 40 35 31 30 30 28 39 53 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -112 -93 -75 -69 -83 -109 -72 -79 -83 -95 -66 -18 43 200 MB DIV -25 0 -3 -3 5 5 5 30 18 10 10 31 39 LAND (KM) 922 1045 1101 1083 1077 1057 875 704 547 461 244 298 592 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 28.6 29.7 30.7 31.7 33.6 35.9 38.2 40.6 42.7 44.5 46.1 47.5 LONG(DEG W) 66.8 66.6 66.3 65.8 65.2 64.1 62.8 60.9 58.8 56.2 53.0 49.3 44.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 14 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 34 27 26 19 15 27 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 719 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. 0. -4. -9. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -11. -18. -26. -34. -41. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 09/03/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 24.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 09/03/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 09/03/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)