* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102010 09/03/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 27 25 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 27 25 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 25 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 19 19 17 19 16 15 14 15 13 10 14 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 0 1 -1 5 1 3 3 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 73 79 90 88 102 120 143 149 176 172 180 190 215 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.5 24.6 23.7 23.2 23.0 22.3 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 131 129 127 125 118 108 98 93 91 84 79 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 6 6 3 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 70 69 65 65 66 65 55 53 47 44 41 35 29 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 9 8 6 6 6 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 92 103 102 95 83 75 82 45 32 34 35 19 200 MB DIV 22 22 21 7 -6 0 -17 -21 -31 -37 -35 -20 -13 LAND (KM) 371 344 328 322 328 402 553 663 773 885 961 1033 1098 LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.7 20.6 20.6 20.7 21.0 21.4 22.1 22.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.0 110.6 111.2 111.7 113.1 115.2 116.9 118.4 119.9 121.4 123.1 124.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 7 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 10. 10. 8. 6. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -3. -5. -11. -14. -19. -25. -28. -33. -36. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102010 TEN 09/03/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102010 TEN 09/03/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY