* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP942010 09/03/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 27 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 27 25 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 28 25 23 20 18 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 19 19 17 19 15 15 14 14 13 10 14 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 0 2 -1 5 1 3 3 0 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 74 79 90 88 104 120 146 149 176 172 180 190 215 SST (C) 27.4 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.4 24.6 23.6 23.2 23.0 22.2 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 133 131 129 127 124 117 108 97 93 91 83 78 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 6 6 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 71 69 65 65 66 65 55 53 47 44 41 35 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 11 9 8 6 6 6 5 5 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 92 103 102 94 83 74 81 43 31 33 34 18 200 MB DIV 21 21 20 6 -6 1 -17 -21 -30 -36 -34 -20 -12 LAND (KM) 360 333 317 312 319 395 543 655 766 879 952 1025 1092 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.8 20.7 20.7 20.8 21.1 21.5 22.2 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 109.4 110.0 110.6 111.2 111.7 113.1 115.2 116.9 118.4 119.9 121.4 123.1 124.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 8 9 7 7 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -3. -5. -11. -15. -20. -25. -28. -33. -37. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942010 INVEST 09/03/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942010 INVEST 09/03/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY