* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/03/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 74 70 66 56 37 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 76 74 70 66 50 33 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 75 71 66 60 47 34 33 31 30 32 34 DIS SHEAR (KT) 14 14 12 17 15 28 41 40 31 30 31 38 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 2 5 13 0 -7 -4 -4 9 8 N/A SHEAR DIR 192 201 198 200 191 216 216 223 231 242 246 259 N/A SST (C) 27.6 26.8 24.7 19.5 15.7 18.3 11.4 12.0 11.5 11.8 12.6 13.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 125 107 83 75 80 70 68 65 65 67 68 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 110 96 77 72 75 68 65 63 63 64 65 N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.9 -48.5 -48.9 -49.0 -48.3 -46.8 -46.5 -45.6 -46.6 -45.8 -45.5 -48.2 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 52 51 55 53 58 43 35 43 50 59 61 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 35 34 35 35 34 35 24 24 25 21 17 14 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -5 -5 13 28 109 162 166 115 97 109 124 N/A 200 MB DIV 31 47 54 76 102 118 59 25 11 29 35 34 N/A LAND (KM) 208 250 187 137 39 111 -94 357 638 799 925 1182 N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.2 37.9 39.5 41.6 43.7 48.1 53.1 56.2 57.6 57.7 56.1 54.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.5 72.3 71.0 68.8 66.5 62.2 57.9 53.4 49.4 46.0 42.4 38.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 23 27 27 28 24 16 11 10 13 14 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 16 CX,CY: 5/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 703 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -10. -19. -28. -37. -43. -49. -51. -52. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -15. -18. -21. -26. -29. -33. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -26. -30. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -8. -8. -8. -11. -15. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -10. -14. -24. -42. -52. -59. -70. -81. -91. -97. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/03/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.4 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/03/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/03/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 3( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)