* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/03/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 60 67 74 78 85 93 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 51 60 67 74 78 85 93 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 49 58 68 80 93 105 SHEAR (KT) 8 12 11 10 10 11 13 11 15 9 10 11 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 2 3 3 4 0 4 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 94 110 116 102 69 80 62 52 28 55 5 52 22 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.8 29.9 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 139 141 143 145 145 147 154 161 166 167 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 132 134 135 139 139 144 153 160 164 163 163 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -51.9 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 50 52 51 49 46 43 44 42 46 46 50 48 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 12 12 12 13 14 850 MB ENV VOR 51 47 49 43 36 31 31 37 36 35 31 19 30 200 MB DIV 22 21 32 30 27 19 3 16 18 15 9 11 24 LAND (KM) 1562 1549 1538 1512 1487 1396 1283 1158 1018 877 685 596 605 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.2 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.2 14.9 14.5 14.4 14.7 15.3 16.1 LONG(DEG W) 41.1 41.6 42.1 42.8 43.5 45.1 47.0 49.0 51.4 53.8 56.1 58.0 59.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 7 9 9 11 12 12 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 39 42 43 39 40 57 77 90 107 114 120 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 26. 35. 42. 49. 53. 60. 68. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/03/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/03/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/03/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)