* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 09/03/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 48 55 56 52 47 41 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 42 48 55 56 52 47 41 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 47 52 54 51 46 42 SHEAR (KT) 12 17 18 18 14 11 8 2 14 20 24 26 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 -2 -1 0 -3 0 -1 1 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 61 59 63 64 58 76 31 89 221 239 247 252 256 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.4 25.5 24.8 24.5 24.6 24.6 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 135 132 129 123 116 108 102 100 100 99 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 127 122 118 113 106 99 93 90 88 87 86 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 84 81 78 74 72 71 69 65 57 53 50 46 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 78 88 92 100 96 75 54 37 12 -9 -24 -45 200 MB DIV 48 68 68 55 42 27 10 13 30 11 -5 -1 4 LAND (KM) 130 172 238 297 356 455 559 550 592 677 757 813 859 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.9 15.5 15.9 16.2 17.0 18.0 19.4 20.8 22.0 23.0 23.8 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.7 23.5 24.2 24.6 24.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 7 6 5 5 6 8 7 7 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 20 24 17 11 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 23. 30. 31. 28. 22. 16. 11. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 09/03/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 09/03/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED