* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102010 09/03/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 30 28 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 30 28 24 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 29 28 26 23 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 15 14 15 13 13 6 10 13 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 0 0 0 1 3 4 7 6 1 2 3 SHEAR DIR 80 85 96 106 114 139 159 191 203 191 203 191 222 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 25.6 24.6 23.5 23.3 23.5 23.3 23.1 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 129 127 126 119 108 96 94 96 94 92 89 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 65 64 61 55 48 47 45 44 37 31 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 104 93 86 71 73 70 50 38 30 23 31 18 200 MB DIV 23 31 23 -1 -27 -8 -29 -35 -32 -38 -30 -28 -14 LAND (KM) 344 329 328 346 378 488 594 730 861 984 1087 1183 1266 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.1 20.8 20.8 20.8 21.1 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.7 111.3 112.0 112.7 114.5 116.5 118.2 119.5 121.0 122.5 124.1 125.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 7 7 7 7 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -14. -19. -22. -27. -32. -34. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102010 TEN 09/03/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102010 TEN 09/03/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY