* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/03/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 65 61 58 53 43 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 65 61 58 44 39 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 64 60 56 48 43 37 30 25 22 21 23 DIS SHEAR (KT) 15 17 13 19 24 34 44 50 44 37 36 26 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 10 9 12 6 6 5 6 6 N/A SHEAR DIR 203 210 218 208 202 224 228 236 252 267 262 264 N/A SST (C) 27.0 25.9 22.8 16.5 17.9 16.3 12.2 13.1 12.7 12.9 13.9 14.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 117 96 77 79 75 69 70 69 68 69 71 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 103 88 74 75 71 67 67 66 65 66 67 N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.0 -48.7 -48.6 -48.6 -47.6 -47.0 -45.3 -45.5 -46.6 -46.2 -46.6 -49.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 53 56 57 58 51 33 31 32 45 49 58 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 34 35 34 34 33 29 21 24 22 23 18 14 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -5 17 25 56 105 116 86 51 97 176 160 N/A 200 MB DIV 53 39 48 102 122 123 56 14 -6 0 5 -2 N/A LAND (KM) 245 263 221 70 -37 57 160 577 997 1351 1271 919 N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.5 39.0 40.4 43.1 45.8 50.0 52.1 54.6 55.8 56.2 55.5 55.0 N/A LONG(DEG W) 72.5 70.5 68.4 66.3 64.2 59.2 53.3 47.4 41.1 35.5 29.6 24.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 22 26 31 29 24 21 20 17 16 16 16 N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 17 CX,CY: 6/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 803 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -9. -16. -24. -30. -35. -39. -41. -41. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -4. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -27. -29. -33. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -22. -26. -29. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -8. -9. -9. -13. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -12. -17. -27. -44. -55. -68. -76. -86. -92. -98. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/03/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/03/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/03/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)