* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 09/03/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 29 27 26 24 24 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 35 32 29 27 26 24 24 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 29 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 19 18 DIS SHEAR (KT) 28 18 19 15 12 3 13 29 41 57 65 61 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 6 3 0 9 -1 1 6 6 0 7 N/A SHEAR DIR 49 48 38 13 20 51 190 215 226 230 236 245 N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.3 26.0 22.8 17.3 15.2 14.5 17.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 150 148 144 138 130 116 93 74 71 71 76 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 130 128 124 120 112 100 81 69 67 67 70 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -50.2 -49.7 -50.0 -50.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.7 -52.8 -53.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 11 12 9 4 3 2 1 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 44 40 38 38 32 29 29 31 38 53 68 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -103 -95 -105 -105 -106 -72 -84 -89 -87 -69 -26 35 N/A 200 MB DIV -1 0 -2 6 13 15 29 10 15 11 24 14 N/A LAND (KM) 1153 1138 1134 1135 1066 852 648 474 289 224 530 901 N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.5 31.4 32.6 33.8 36.4 39.4 42.0 44.1 46.1 47.7 49.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.8 65.3 64.7 64.1 63.5 61.7 59.7 57.3 54.0 50.3 45.7 40.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 14 16 16 16 16 17 18 18 N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 24 19 19 27 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 11 CX,CY: 3/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 1. -4. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -17. -24. -30. -34. -38. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 09/03/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.2 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 48.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 09/03/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 09/03/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)