* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/03/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 52 62 69 75 83 91 97 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 52 62 69 75 83 91 97 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 49 57 69 83 97 110 SHEAR (KT) 12 9 10 11 11 10 14 11 16 5 13 13 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 2 6 6 3 1 3 5 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 129 123 104 81 74 77 53 54 62 87 39 24 28 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 141 142 143 146 148 152 159 166 171 172 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 132 133 134 136 141 144 148 156 166 172 172 172 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 49 46 43 46 42 43 43 42 43 47 48 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 16 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 58 58 50 45 39 43 40 46 37 45 41 46 54 200 MB DIV 32 25 16 16 29 34 16 23 24 19 34 13 34 LAND (KM) 1586 1552 1518 1479 1440 1315 1198 1093 936 724 545 455 442 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.3 15.4 15.2 15.0 14.9 15.0 14.9 14.9 LONG(DEG W) 41.9 42.6 43.3 44.0 44.7 46.6 49.2 51.4 53.5 55.8 58.4 60.9 63.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 11 12 11 11 12 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 40 43 44 42 42 37 62 83 92 105 110 124 118 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 27. 37. 44. 50. 58. 66. 72. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/03/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 42.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/03/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/03/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)