* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992010 09/03/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 44 45 43 38 31 26 21 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 44 45 43 38 31 26 21 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 42 43 40 36 32 29 SHEAR (KT) 23 22 17 11 10 8 6 15 29 28 34 32 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 0 4 2 3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 45 51 59 47 49 17 257 251 249 247 242 235 222 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.1 25.5 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.4 25.3 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 131 126 121 114 108 107 107 107 108 107 106 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 128 123 117 112 104 99 97 97 97 97 96 94 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 78 76 73 71 67 63 57 52 48 48 47 41 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 76 84 95 100 102 91 68 70 36 24 -5 -23 200 MB DIV 50 48 44 51 58 0 4 6 8 -10 -3 9 16 LAND (KM) 172 250 337 423 509 657 731 825 995 1169 1359 1517 1671 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.6 16.2 16.8 17.3 18.2 19.4 20.3 21.2 22.0 22.9 23.7 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 19.1 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.5 22.6 23.8 24.9 26.6 28.3 30.1 31.6 33.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 16 8 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -6. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 19. 20. 18. 13. 6. 1. -4. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992010 INVEST 09/03/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.1 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992010 INVEST 09/03/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED