* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102010 09/03/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 28 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 28 26 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 28 27 24 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 21 20 19 16 13 13 8 5 12 10 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 0 -1 0 6 3 5 6 3 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 84 90 96 101 118 135 159 190 178 198 209 200 220 SST (C) 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.8 24.8 23.7 23.4 23.4 23.5 23.4 23.1 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 128 125 121 110 99 96 96 98 97 93 88 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 67 66 61 56 51 52 47 36 29 24 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 107 106 91 80 85 70 68 46 38 30 27 19 -1 200 MB DIV 47 35 0 -28 -24 -31 -32 -39 -31 -31 -14 -7 -15 LAND (KM) 319 340 380 444 513 596 741 928 1095 1253 1430 1610 1769 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.5 20.6 20.9 20.8 20.7 20.7 20.8 21.0 21.4 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.6 112.4 113.4 114.4 116.3 118.1 120.2 122.5 124.7 127.0 129.3 131.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 8 9 10 10 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -22. -25. -30. -33. -37. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102010 TEN 09/03/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102010 TEN 09/03/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY