* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP952010 09/03/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 41 45 54 60 67 73 71 71 75 75 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 31 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KT) 17 15 18 18 10 9 10 15 13 18 14 11 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 5 3 1 4 0 0 0 -2 0 0 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 63 56 51 61 59 10 27 10 5 352 14 355 325 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 155 158 158 158 157 157 158 159 161 162 163 164 166 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.6 -52.1 -52.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -50.5 -50.1 -50.2 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 6 6 8 6 8 8 9 9 13 13 14 700-500 MB RH 83 82 83 84 82 85 85 82 80 79 74 72 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 10 8 8 9 10 11 13 12 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 65 74 86 85 85 93 91 90 84 87 76 61 31 200 MB DIV 94 104 129 132 132 137 84 72 58 39 55 42 32 LAND (KM) 121 83 27 -50 -127 -139 -111 -83 -43 -18 -102 -193 -307 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.0 17.9 18.7 19.5 20.7 22.0 23.5 25.0 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.2 94.7 95.2 95.6 96.0 96.7 97.0 97.2 97.5 98.0 98.8 99.6 100.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 7 7 7 5 4 5 7 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 36 31 0 0 0 0 1 3 0 3 4 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 647 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 23. 30. 35. 39. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 6. 6. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 11. 15. 24. 30. 37. 43. 41. 41. 45. 45. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP952010 INVEST 09/03/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.6 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP952010 INVEST 09/03/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY