* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/04/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 52 47 44 33 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 55 46 39 40 34 25 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 55 50 38 40 32 31 28 27 28 30 DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 15 17 20 18 29 44 44 28 19 21 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 13 12 -4 -5 -9 -3 2 8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 180 201 193 201 222 235 237 238 224 248 248 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 20.2 15.8 18.7 17.2 10.8 12.0 10.9 11.2 12.6 13.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 86 76 82 78 69 68 64 64 67 68 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 81 73 77 74 68 65 62 62 64 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.8 -49.1 -48.9 -48.3 -48.4 -48.0 -47.2 -47.0 -46.6 -46.3 -48.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 59 58 58 59 37 32 39 52 58 66 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 34 32 35 31 32 24 21 24 25 23 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 14 35 48 85 115 121 105 135 129 101 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 58 105 126 112 56 26 10 19 15 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 251 166 -1 -8 52 38 515 784 900 934 1130 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.9 41.4 43.8 46.4 49.0 53.7 57.0 58.4 58.3 56.2 54.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.9 68.5 66.0 63.5 61.0 56.0 51.2 47.4 44.7 42.3 38.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 31 31 31 30 25 17 9 9 13 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 21 CX,CY: 13/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -10. -16. -22. -27. -30. -32. -33. -33. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -20. -22. -26. -29. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -15. -19. -24. -28. -31. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -1. -7. -10. -8. -8. -10. -15. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -13. -16. -27. -36. -41. -47. -54. -67. -73. -79. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/04/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/04/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/04/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)