* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * FIONA AL082010 09/04/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 22 21 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 22 21 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 27 24 23 22 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 19 18 14 11 8 5 22 37 54 61 65 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 0 4 5 3 11 8 7 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 50 40 31 47 42 154 213 225 234 233 243 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.0 27.6 26.8 23.9 18.5 15.4 13.5 15.9 15.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 145 143 138 133 125 100 77 71 69 73 72 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 124 123 120 116 108 87 71 68 66 68 68 N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -50.5 -50.1 -50.4 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.4 -51.1 -51.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 10 6 3 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 40 38 39 36 33 28 25 29 44 60 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -74 -73 -110 -113 -96 -96 -95 -79 -61 -31 18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -23 0 -6 12 10 30 8 8 -5 11 22 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1117 1122 1135 1069 966 727 489 301 81 346 707 1118 N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.8 32.6 33.9 35.1 38.1 41.3 44.1 46.3 48.2 49.6 51.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 65.2 64.7 64.1 63.4 62.6 60.6 58.4 55.7 52.2 48.2 43.4 37.9 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 12 14 15 18 17 17 17 17 18 19 N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 17 19 25 15 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 12 CX,CY: 4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 789 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 2.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 10. 6. 0. -5. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -16. -24. -32. -37. -41. -43. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082010 FIONA 09/04/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 47.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082010 FIONA 09/04/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082010 FIONA 09/04/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)