* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/04/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 48 57 65 73 78 85 91 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 40 48 57 65 73 78 85 91 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 47 56 68 81 94 104 SHEAR (KT) 10 12 14 14 16 14 12 13 9 14 11 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 1 2 5 4 1 6 -1 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 101 93 84 78 76 65 70 55 50 27 69 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.5 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 144 144 145 147 152 161 166 168 170 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 135 138 138 138 141 149 158 162 163 166 168 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 42 45 43 42 45 45 48 47 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 48 40 36 40 36 36 33 34 32 28 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 4 8 15 10 4 6 9 8 15 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1565 1535 1503 1436 1374 1283 1210 1115 883 690 613 606 382 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.5 15.2 15.1 15.6 16.2 16.9 LONG(DEG W) 42.6 43.3 43.9 44.9 45.9 47.8 49.6 51.8 54.2 56.4 58.2 60.2 62.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 8 10 10 9 10 11 11 10 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 42 44 43 42 36 46 69 85 88 109 113 121 99 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 25. 30. 34. 37. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 15. 23. 32. 41. 48. 53. 60. 66. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/04/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/04/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/04/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)