* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102010 09/04/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 27 26 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 18 19 18 15 13 15 16 6 10 10 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 0 2 3 4 6 6 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 95 91 102 122 123 137 189 234 194 224 205 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.4 24.4 23.3 23.2 23.0 22.7 22.5 22.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 126 123 117 107 95 95 92 89 86 82 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 66 64 59 52 50 46 36 28 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 87 70 73 67 70 52 35 22 20 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 12 -14 -8 -5 -45 -36 -36 -24 -22 -16 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 271 304 370 455 508 655 846 1000 1153 1303 1462 1559 N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.6 20.7 20.8 20.9 20.9 20.9 21.1 21.3 21.8 22.3 22.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.6 112.7 113.8 114.9 117.1 119.4 121.6 123.9 126.1 128.2 129.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 8 6 N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -15. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -27. -34. -38. -42. -48. -52. -53. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102010 TEN 09/04/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 4.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102010 TEN 09/04/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY