* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112010 09/04/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 40 42 50 56 63 68 69 71 74 77 V (KT) LAND 30 34 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 17 19 21 14 13 13 11 13 11 12 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 6 3 0 -2 -2 -1 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 53 51 58 54 34 22 358 341 287 318 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 158 158 158 161 162 163 166 169 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.7 -51.7 -51.1 -52.0 -51.1 -51.5 -50.3 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 6 8 8 6 9 7 13 8 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 82 83 83 82 79 79 72 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 84 90 87 83 96 85 92 113 101 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 103 115 137 145 110 81 48 51 55 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 80 30 -24 -118 -139 -139 -199 -260 -370 -293 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.0 17.7 19.0 20.3 21.6 22.8 23.4 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.9 95.2 95.8 96.3 97.5 99.0 100.3 101.5 103.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 42 0 0 0 0 0 5 8 9 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 614 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 16. 24. 31. 36. 40. 44. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 12. 20. 26. 33. 38. 39. 41. 44. 47. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112010 ELEVEN 09/04/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.1 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112010 ELEVEN 09/04/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY