* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/04/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 50 46 42 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 55 41 42 38 29 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 55 41 43 40 34 30 27 26 27 29 33 38 SHEAR (KT) 12 18 17 29 41 46 27 11 10 32 17 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 11 15 1 -1 -7 3 -1 0 0 7 10 SHEAR DIR 185 189 190 220 233 228 228 191 231 239 246 305 306 SST (C) 21.8 16.5 18.3 18.4 15.9 11.2 12.0 11.8 9.8 9.0 10.2 12.0 10.5 POT. INT. (KT) 91 77 81 81 75 67 65 63 62 59 63 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 83 73 76 76 71 65 62 61 60 57 61 63 65 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.5 -48.5 -47.9 -47.8 -46.3 -46.8 -48.6 -49.1 -51.5 -53.3 -54.3 -54.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 54 56 59 51 34 37 52 56 52 44 38 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 35 33 33 31 22 24 24 23 20 13 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 33 60 97 95 147 152 136 90 31 -63 -91 4 200 MB DIV 59 89 145 113 78 52 33 22 0 -36 -43 -27 6 LAND (KM) 201 50 -38 124 64 145 378 371 217 178 259 430 759 LAT (DEG N) 40.8 43.2 45.6 48.1 50.5 54.1 56.5 57.2 56.7 56.8 57.2 57.7 58.9 LONG(DEG W) 68.3 66.1 63.8 61.1 58.4 54.3 53.5 55.1 57.8 58.7 57.3 54.5 49.0 STM SPEED (KT) 26 29 30 30 26 17 8 6 5 1 6 12 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 26 CX,CY: 18/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 731 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -19. -25. -30. -33. -35. -36. -36. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 16. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -24. -28. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -7. -7. -7. -8. -11. -16. -19. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -18. -32. -38. -45. -51. -59. -68. -75. -80. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/04/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.9 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/04/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/04/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)