* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/04/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 42 50 58 68 75 81 87 94 100 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 42 50 58 68 75 81 87 94 100 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 50 57 67 79 92 104 112 118 SHEAR (KT) 12 11 13 12 12 10 12 15 11 18 9 11 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 1 2 7 3 5 3 0 2 2 1 SHEAR DIR 88 86 82 79 80 61 72 56 39 38 34 35 309 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.9 29.4 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 143 143 145 151 159 166 168 169 167 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 135 135 135 136 140 147 157 164 165 164 160 155 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 47 41 41 41 40 40 43 44 48 47 50 53 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 11 10 11 14 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR 50 45 41 42 43 34 38 34 34 30 29 24 32 200 MB DIV 2 -7 6 5 13 7 20 25 10 18 17 16 22 LAND (KM) 1488 1454 1425 1384 1347 1248 1128 944 728 617 620 414 242 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.8 15.5 15.3 15.3 15.7 16.4 17.4 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 44.0 44.8 45.5 46.3 47.1 49.0 51.3 53.6 56.1 58.3 60.2 61.9 63.4 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 11 11 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 42 41 38 40 61 83 88 107 112 118 88 91 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 20. 28. 38. 45. 51. 57. 64. 70. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/04/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/04/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/04/2010 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)