* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102010 09/04/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 20 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 20 20 16 14 11 14 15 11 18 13 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 0 3 1 6 3 0 -1 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 88 96 118 136 141 171 225 213 223 241 225 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.1 25.7 25.2 24.7 24.0 23.0 22.1 21.3 20.7 20.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 124 120 114 109 102 91 82 74 67 65 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 68 64 62 59 54 43 37 28 22 19 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 4 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 70 73 65 54 43 22 39 28 43 9 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 -3 -2 6 -24 -28 -23 -26 -20 -14 -19 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 205 241 296 342 362 463 584 648 756 845 952 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.5 21.7 21.9 22.1 22.5 23.0 23.6 24.3 25.0 25.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.0 111.8 112.6 113.5 114.3 116.1 117.8 119.5 121.5 122.9 124.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 7 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -4. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -16. -17. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -11. -18. -28. -35. -42. -48. -54. -57. -57. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102010 TEN 09/04/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102010 TEN 09/04/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY