* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112010 09/04/10 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 47 53 60 69 71 70 72 74 75 V (KT) LAND 35 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 21 22 17 16 15 12 13 12 14 12 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 4 3 2 0 -3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 60 51 37 36 43 12 10 17 19 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.8 30.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 156 157 158 160 161 162 164 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -51.8 -51.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.4 -51.0 -50.4 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 6 8 7 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 83 83 84 86 81 82 79 76 76 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 8 9 10 10 13 12 10 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 86 86 83 91 87 97 91 107 98 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 100 111 118 121 123 101 70 76 44 53 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 10 -37 -85 -132 -151 -77 -83 -111 -171 -299 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.4 16.7 17.1 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.6 21.5 22.2 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.4 95.7 95.9 96.0 96.5 97.2 98.2 99.4 100.8 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 6 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 15. 22. 28. 32. 35. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 8. 7. 4. 5. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 12. 18. 25. 34. 36. 35. 37. 39. 40. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112010 ELEVEN 09/04/10 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 86.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112010 ELEVEN 09/04/10 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY