* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/04/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 54 50 43 33 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 46 45 41 32 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 48 46 45 38 35 30 28 28 29 32 37 42 SHEAR (KT) 15 19 29 34 38 45 19 9 13 31 26 18 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 13 13 11 6 -8 -4 0 0 -1 -1 5 2 SHEAR DIR 188 197 227 227 223 219 212 184 242 239 227 242 249 SST (C) 17.0 18.6 18.9 16.4 13.0 11.6 11.9 11.9 11.3 11.6 12.1 11.5 11.2 POT. INT. (KT) 77 81 81 76 70 66 62 62 60 62 65 66 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 73 76 76 72 68 63 60 59 57 60 62 64 65 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -48.2 -47.6 -47.1 -46.5 -45.2 -46.8 -47.0 -48.4 -49.6 -51.0 -51.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 55 58 48 36 35 45 60 65 59 60 53 59 GFS VTEX (KT) 34 32 34 30 24 21 23 22 20 16 11 10 12 850 MB ENV VOR 26 45 95 108 144 156 151 148 108 54 25 45 83 200 MB DIV 80 131 103 106 71 30 24 30 2 -12 -8 -5 19 LAND (KM) 57 -57 89 77 -43 245 349 341 270 304 441 650 998 LAT (DEG N) 43.0 45.3 47.6 49.9 52.1 55.1 56.2 56.5 56.2 56.4 56.9 57.6 58.7 LONG(DEG W) 65.7 63.4 61.1 58.9 56.7 53.9 53.6 54.4 55.5 55.1 52.8 49.1 43.2 STM SPEED (KT) 28 28 28 27 22 11 4 3 1 4 9 14 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 27 CX,CY: 17/ 21 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -13. -21. -27. -32. -35. -37. -38. -37. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -17. -18. -18. -19. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -21. -25. -29. -33. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -5. -8. -8. -9. -11. -14. -18. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -17. -27. -34. -42. -50. -59. -69. -75. -77. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/04/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 98.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/04/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/04/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)