* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/04/10 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 43 52 62 71 79 85 92 99 106 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 43 52 62 71 79 85 92 99 102 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 50 60 73 90 107 119 128 130 SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 10 9 9 10 7 14 11 9 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 4 3 3 4 -4 0 -5 -2 -5 SHEAR DIR 110 97 93 94 87 80 56 66 25 60 38 50 2 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 29.0 29.5 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.1 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 142 144 144 146 153 161 169 170 171 171 171 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 138 140 143 150 159 168 166 165 164 166 158 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 41 40 40 40 42 43 44 46 51 48 53 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 45 42 44 39 36 31 25 26 30 23 26 30 35 200 MB DIV -5 0 -2 16 18 11 4 6 21 21 19 3 -5 LAND (KM) 1466 1421 1382 1336 1294 1127 882 682 593 423 259 59 62 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.4 16.1 16.1 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.2 LONG(DEG W) 45.6 46.5 47.4 48.6 49.8 52.5 55.2 57.8 60.3 62.3 63.8 65.7 67.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 12 12 13 13 13 11 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 43 41 47 56 68 84 89 112 122 109 115 114 97 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 22. 32. 41. 49. 55. 62. 69. 76. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/04/10 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/04/10 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/04/2010 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)