* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * EARL AL072010 09/04/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 55 49 44 37 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 56 52 38 38 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 57 53 39 40 35 32 30 30 31 35 41 47 SHEAR (KT) 21 30 34 41 42 26 18 19 23 16 11 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 15 3 -1 -5 -5 4 0 -3 -1 2 5 -3 SHEAR DIR 209 228 232 235 229 236 205 198 200 187 200 219 231 SST (C) 18.9 17.9 15.7 11.6 11.3 12.1 12.0 12.1 12.1 12.5 12.7 12.5 12.3 POT. INT. (KT) 82 80 75 69 67 64 61 64 65 65 66 68 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 77 75 71 67 65 62 58 61 62 62 64 65 66 200 MB T (C) -48.6 -48.1 -48.4 -47.3 -46.5 -47.2 -48.4 -48.5 -49.3 -51.1 -52.1 -52.2 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 55 55 47 36 28 33 46 49 52 44 32 40 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 33 31 23 20 20 17 18 15 14 14 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 57 93 89 138 148 135 109 96 55 14 54 68 127 200 MB DIV 124 85 63 65 39 19 26 2 -10 -18 -17 -4 -2 LAND (KM) 15 97 32 -31 194 412 424 425 379 465 679 975 1380 LAT (DEG N) 46.0 48.5 50.9 52.8 54.7 56.9 57.7 57.3 55.7 55.2 55.7 56.9 59.4 LONG(DEG W) 63.3 60.8 58.3 56.3 54.3 53.5 54.6 54.0 51.9 49.6 46.3 42.0 36.5 STM SPEED (KT) 31 30 26 23 17 8 1 6 8 8 11 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 35 CX,CY: 20/ 29 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -28. -33. -35. -37. -37. -37. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -11. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -21. -25. -30. -34. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -3. -5. -7. -10. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -13. -14. -15. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -11. -16. -23. -33. -40. -49. -56. -61. -66. -69. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072010 EARL 09/04/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.2 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.0 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072010 EARL 09/04/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072010 EARL 09/04/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)