* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/04/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 48 58 68 77 85 93 100 107 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 48 58 68 77 85 93 100 107 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 35 37 44 53 64 79 94 107 116 121 SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 12 11 10 14 12 17 14 15 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 2 2 2 2 0 -2 -2 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 87 87 77 72 64 74 53 36 49 51 40 46 33 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.8 29.2 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 144 146 149 156 165 168 170 171 171 171 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 139 141 145 153 161 165 165 165 166 164 156 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 38 39 37 41 40 45 46 46 46 48 53 54 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 8 10 9 12 13 15 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 43 43 38 41 35 26 25 26 33 33 49 45 54 200 MB DIV 6 12 20 26 19 -4 13 21 38 35 69 -1 25 LAND (KM) 1440 1398 1357 1308 1250 1009 803 670 542 345 184 83 53 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.7 16.8 16.8 16.8 16.6 16.4 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.8 17.2 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 46.6 47.7 48.8 50.0 51.2 53.8 56.3 58.7 60.9 62.9 64.7 66.5 68.2 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 50 57 69 79 83 100 104 57 102 114 118 101 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 20. 25. 30. 33. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 18. 28. 38. 47. 55. 63. 70. 77. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/04/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 60.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/04/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/04/2010 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)