* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942010 09/04/10 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KT) 5 4 8 7 9 11 11 13 11 4 4 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 3 3 3 4 3 0 1 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 322 281 231 219 206 190 211 189 219 159 92 115 126 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.3 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.8 25.9 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 136 135 133 129 124 119 118 119 119 121 122 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 51 50 49 50 46 46 41 38 35 33 27 26 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 4 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 13 21 31 38 42 50 42 45 47 41 23 23 29 200 MB DIV 7 49 47 39 31 32 0 -5 2 -9 -19 -25 -4 LAND (KM) 1615 1590 1566 1558 1552 1557 1539 1501 1427 1341 1229 1119 979 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.8 13.2 14.3 15.2 16.0 16.4 16.5 16.5 16.2 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 142.2 142.2 142.2 142.0 141.8 141.2 141.0 141.1 141.7 142.5 143.6 144.8 146.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 6 5 4 3 4 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 14 20 21 21 20 15 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -11. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -5. ** 2010 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942010 INVEST 09/04/10 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 15.2 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.2 times the sample mean(11.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.7%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.1%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942010 INVEST 09/04/10 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY