* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA AVAILABLE * * OHC DATA AVAILABLE * * GASTON AL092010 09/05/10 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 29 38 47 59 68 76 84 88 93 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 29 38 47 59 68 76 84 88 93 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 24 25 29 35 44 57 73 88 99 104 SHEAR (KT) 13 12 12 12 9 8 2 10 5 9 6 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 3 1 1 1 -7 -3 -6 -4 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 96 86 83 82 84 52 85 8 37 357 356 347 319 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 146 148 151 162 167 167 168 167 162 160 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 141 144 148 161 166 163 160 156 149 145 144 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 11 11 11 12 11 11 11 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 41 37 41 38 41 45 47 48 50 53 53 54 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 9 6 7 6 6 7 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 37 32 30 25 23 9 8 9 16 19 35 31 40 200 MB DIV 14 24 33 26 5 -15 3 23 18 11 21 -3 17 LAND (KM) 1398 1360 1329 1261 1158 960 739 443 179 12 66 83 44 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.2 17.3 17.6 18.0 18.1 18.2 18.5 19.1 19.4 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 47.7 48.9 50.0 51.3 52.6 55.5 58.7 61.5 64.0 65.8 67.1 68.2 69.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 10 8 6 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 50 58 68 76 81 87 92 93 99 1 83 73 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 13. 22. 34. 43. 51. 59. 63. 68. ** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092010 GASTON 09/05/10 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.4 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 66.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.6%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.1%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.8%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092010 GASTON 09/05/10 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092010 GASTON 09/05/2010 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)